Are we really Bayesian? Probabilistic inference shows sub-optimal knowledge transfer
Fig 4
Slope and transfer score of experiment 2, A discovery & B validation set Violin-plots show the distributions of slope in the learning and transfer phases of experiment 2, separated by likelihood and group. The central green line represents the median. The vertical bar within the violin spans between the second and third quartiles. Each filled dot represents one participant. Three optimal slopes given likelihoods are presented as colour dashed lines, with pink representing PwLn, blue representing PwLm, and violet representing PwLw respectively. C discovery & D validation set Distributions of transfer scores in the interpolation and extrapolation groups. The central green line is the median of each group, and the vertical bar is the interquartile range. Insets showed predicted slope (gray bar) along with measured slope (olive bar) in the transfer-new trials. Note that there was no significant difference in the interpolation group. *p< = .05; ** p< = .01; ***p< = .001; n.s. non-significant.