Are we really Bayesian? Probabilistic inference shows sub-optimal knowledge transfer
Fig 3
Slope and transfer score in the experiment 1. slope A Discovery & B Validation set. Violin plots show the distribution of slopes in the learning, transfer-old and transfer-new trials of experiment 1, separated by prior, likelihood and cognitive load group (upper serial, lower parallel). The central blue line shows the median. The error bar represents the interquartile range. Filled dots represent each participant. Each prior/likelihood combination is represented by orange PnLn, green PnLw, pink PwLn, and violet PwLw. Bayes-optimal values are presented as coloured dashed lines, with colours corresponding to prior/likelihood types. transfer score B Discovery & D validation sets. The distribution of transfer scores in the serial and parallel groups. The upper panels show distribution of transfer scores of each prior/likelihood combination, separated by cognitive load group. Lower panels merge data of different prior/likelihood combinations. The central black line and error bar in the discovery set (Fig 3B) represent the mean and standard error while the central black line and error bar in the validation set (Fig 3D) represent the median and interquartile range. *p< = .05; ** p< = .01; ***p< = .001; n.s. non-significant.