EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks
Fig 6
(A) Daily incidence in LBMs in multiple simulations. (B) Cumulative number of new farms infected over time from multiple clusters. Each cluster is initiated by a different infectious seed. (C) Distribution of attack rates for individual production cycles, conditional on at least one infection. (D-F) High farm transmission scenario (wF = 0.2, wM = 0.7). Colour scale corresponds to varying levels of inter-farm transmission βFF. (D) Proportion of incident cases in different setting types (F: farms, MM: middlemen, M: markets, V: vendors). (E) Average hourly prevalence in LBMs at stationariety. (F) Proportion of latent and infectious chickens entering markets daily as a function of βFF. (G-I) High LBM transmission scenario (wF = 0.1, wM = 2.4). Colour scale corresponds to varying latent period TE. (G,H) mirror (D,E). (I) Persistence is measured as the proportion of simulations where at least one transmission chain persisting in markets and vendors for longer than 50 days was observed. Results are qualitatively the same under different criteria about the duration of transmission chains (S5 Fig). Other parameters are set to default values. Results are based on 50 simulations from 10 different synthetic PDNs.