EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks
Fig 2
(A) Spatial population of 1200 farms supplying Dhaka. Farm locations are generated as described in S1 Text and assigned preferentially to upazilas with a larger observed outgoing chicken flux (colour scale). (B) Empirical (black) and simulated (red) distribution of times required to sell an entire batch. (C) Expected and measured distributions of transactions a single batch is split into. (D) Measured vs expected relative flux between individual pairs (dots) of upazilas and LBMs. (E) Distribution of LBMs serviced daily by individual middlemen. (F) Proportion of chickens sold to wholesalers (W, teal) and retailers (R, yellow) by LBM tier in simulations (bars) and data (markers). MM → V0 refers to transactions involving middlemen and first tier vendors, while VL → VL+1 represents inter-tier transactions. For each tier, bars do not add up to 1 since wholesalers can sell to end-point consumers as well. Inset shows proportions of wholesalers and retailers. (G) Marketing time distribution. Results are obtained from a single simulation with default settings. We emphasize that some of the quantities shown here (panels B,C,G), emerge dynamically during simulations and are not enforced as tightly as poultry fluxes (D) and visits to LBMs (E). Farm data are obtained from [27]. Data about middlemen and vendor trading practices and marketing times are obtained from [18]. The base layer of the map was obtained from https://gadm.org/download_country_v2.html.