Development of Accurate Long-lead COVID-19 Forecast
Fig 9
Real-time forecasts of cumulative infections, cases, and deaths during the 2022–2023 respiratory virus season.
Box plots show distributions of predicted total number of infections (1st panel, scaled to population size; i.e. attack rate), cases (2nd panel, scaled to population size), and deaths (3rd panel, scaled per 1 million persons) from the week starting 10/2/2022 to the week starting 3/26/2023. Thick line = median; box edge = interquartile range; whisker = 95% prediction interval. The states (x-axis label) are arranged according to accuracy of historical forecast (higher accuracy from left to right). Red asterisks (*) show reported cumulative cases and deaths during the forecast period.