Development of Accurate Long-lead COVID-19 Forecast
Fig 6
Probabilistic forecast accuracy of the best-performing and baseline forecast approaches.
Boxplots show the distributions of pair-wise difference in log score by variant period (A) or respiratory virus season (B; see panel subtitles). Results are aggregated by location (color-coded for each state) and forecast target (x-axis), for cases and deaths (see panel subtitles), separately. The numbers show the range of number of evaluations of each forecast target (e.g., 59 predictions of peak week during the pre-Omicron period, for each state; 16–20 predictions of peak week during the Omicron period, depending on the timing of Omicron detection in each state). A positive difference indicates superior log score of the best-performing forecast approach.