Development of Accurate Long-lead COVID-19 Forecast
Fig 5
Impact of seasonality settings on forecast performance.
Heatmaps show the differences in mean log score (A) or point prediction accuracy (B), between pairs of forecast approaches with different seasonality settings (see panel subtitles). All forecasts here were generated using a deflation factor of 0.9 and the new variant setting. Results are aggregated for each forecast target (y-axis) and location (x-axis), over either the respiratory virus season (first 3 columns) or the off season (last 3 columns), for cases (1st row) and deaths (2nd row), separately. For each pairwise comparison (e.g., fixed vs no seasonality), a positive difference in log score or point prediction accuracy indicates the former approach (e.g., with fixed seasonality) outperforms the latter (e.g., with no seasonality).