Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
Fig 7
Estimated marginal mean Weighted Interval Score (WIS) and 95% confidence intervals for mean cases from team-specific GEE models for all 51 jurisdictions (Panel A). The 95% confidence intervals for the COVIDhub-baseline model are shown in dashed red vertical lines. Panel B presents each team’s estimated marginal mean WIS per phase, scaled to the COVIDhub-baseline model’s estimated marginal mean WIS for all epidemic phases. Teams with higher estimated marginal mean WIS values (i.e., greater than 1.0) are presented in shades of orange while teams with lower estimated marginal mean WIS (i.e., less than 1.0) are shown in shades of green. Forecasts for a team in a particular phase are marked with an asterisk (*) if the 80% confidence interval of the expected WIS outcome (normalized and on the log scale) was estimated by a model to be lower than the average expected WIS of the COVIDhub-baseline model across all phases. Panel C shows each team’s mean 95% prediction interval coverage in each epidemic phase.