Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
Fig 6
Forecast accuracy over time, aggregated by geographic units, forecast horizon, and prediction date.
Panels A-C show average Weighted Interval Score (WIS); panels D-F show 95% prediction interval coverage. The black, dashed vertical line in all panels shows the date that public communication of the case forecasts was paused. The black, dashed horizontal line in panels D-F shows nominal 95% prediction interval coverage. National level forecasts are presented in A and D, state/territory/DC forecasts in B and E and large county forecasts in C and F.