Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data
Fig 3
Predicted Bid truncation dynamics of aEARM trained to different sized ordinal datasets.
Multiple Bayesian optimizations were run on the A.) abridged Extrinsic Apoptosis Reaction Model (aEARM) using different sized ordinal dataset to probe how dataset size influenced certainty of aEARM predictions. B.) Initiator caspase reporter (IC-RP) fluorescence time-course measurements (at 180s intervals) were measured (top left) as a proxy for truncated tBid (data from Albeck et al21). The plot shows the mean (dotted orange line) ± 1 standard deviation (shaded region) for each time point. The 95% credible region (top right) of posterior predictions (shaded region) for tBID concentration in aEARM, calibrated to fluorescence measurements of IC-RP and EC-RP (See also Fig C in S1 Text). The median prediction (solid-line) and ground truth (dotted line) tBID concentration trajectories are shown. In the next four rows (from top to bottom), Ordinal measurements of tBID (left) at every 1500, 300, 180 and 60s interval, respectively. The 95% credible region of predictions (shaded region), median prediction (solid line) and true (dotted line) tBID dynamics for aEARM calibrated to ordinal measurements of tBID and cPARP occurring at every 1500, 300, 180 and 60s timepoint are plotted in plots on the right. The plots for cPARP ordinal measurements and predictions are found in Fig A in S1 Text.