Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis
Fig 2
Illustration of the modelling approach, and of model projections, in the example of California.
For each state shown in Fig 1, we calibrated the model to the epidemic data from the spring wave (black line, to the left of the vertical dashed line, with aggregated model projections shown in grey shaded area). Using this calibrated model, we projected simulations forward into the fall, taking account of the effect of school openings and environmental forcing (blue shaded area). Although the model projection for epidemic peak timing varied in accuracy across states, our subsequent analysis concentrates on cumulative burden (area under the curve). See S2 Fig for results for other states.