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Learning from the past: A short term forecast method for the COVID-19 incidence curve
Fig 4
Error statistics.
Illustration of some statistics of the Ed = {ed,k} distribution defined by (10) for the entire database: the 
curve indicates the mean of the distribution that is greatly affected by the skewness of the distribution, which justifies using the median (the curve in 
) instead of the mean. The median is indeed very close to zero, which proves the consistency of the approximation adopted in Eq (12). From the outside to the inside, the shaded areas represent the estimated (1 − αk) × 100% central prediction intervals 
for αk = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, …, 0.9.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010790.g004