Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts of epidemics
Fig 7
Entropy and mean log score before and after recalibration, for each of the 27 FluSight forecasters and short-term targets.
The tail of arrow represents a quantity before recalibration, and the head after recalibration. The dotted lines show the central 90% interval of the entropy of a comparably-sized sample of standard uniform random variables for comparison. For all but two forecasters (the eight bottom-most line segments), the ensemble recalibration method achieves almost perfect calibration as evidenced by a near-zero PIT entropy, and this is accompanied by significant improvements in accuracy.