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Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts of epidemics

Fig 6

Improvement in mean log score versus improvement in entropy for each of the 27 FluSight forecasters and short-term targets.

There is a clear linear trend (with slope approximately 1) between the improvement in calibration and the improvement in accuracy.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010771.g006