Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts of epidemics
Fig 5
Proportion of forecasters for which recalibration improves mean log score (left) and entropy of the PIT values (right).
The ensemble method improves accuracy for the short-term targets for all forecasters, and most forecasters for the seasonal targets. It also improves calibration (as measured by entropy) for most forecasters and most targets. The ensemble method outperforms both the nonparametric and parametric methods.