Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
Fig 2
Schematic representation of parent-offspring kinship probabilities.
Parameters and state variables are as defined in Table 1 and ยง2.1. Subscript 1 refers to the parent (blue), and subscript 2 refers to the offspring (purple, the perspective from which probabilities are calculated). Circles represent living individuals and squares represent sampled individuals. Parents are sampled on day t1, eggs are laid on day y2, and offspring are sampled on day t2. Offspring kinship probabilities are the ratio of the expected number of surviving offspring from a given adult on day t2, and the expected number of surviving offspring from all adult females on this day. The expected number of surviving offspring from all adult females requires considering days of egg-laying consistent with larval ages at sampling in the range [0, TL) (for larval offspring) (A), or adult ages at sampling in the range [0, TA) (for adult offspring) (C). Calculating the expected number of surviving larval offspring on day t2 from an adult female requires considering days of egg-laying, y2, consistent with maternal ages at egg-laying in the range [0, TA), and with larval offspring ages at sampling in the range [0, TL) (B). For father-adult offspring pairs, this requires considering days of mating, ti, and egg-laying, y2, consistent with maternal ages at egg-laying, and paternal and adult offspring ages at sampling in the range [0, TA) (D).