Bayesian parameter estimation for dynamical models in systems biology
Fig 2
Examples of point estimates depicted on an arbitrary probability density function (black line).
The MAP (maximum a posteriori) point is located at the most probable point (blue dashed line). The long tail of the distribution shifts the mean (gray dotted line) away from the MAP point. Secondary modes (red dashed-dotted line) can effect the quality of a point estimate. Additionally, the green shaded region highlights the 95% credible interval, the region between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, that is used to capture the uncertainty in an estimate.