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Probabilistic program inference in network-based epidemiological simulations

Fig 3

Inferred parameter values from synthetic data.

We plot the inferred values of across 6 different generated scenarios using 6 lines. The scenarios are “high”, “high-low”, “high-low-high”, “low-high”, “low-high -low”, and “low” where β^E varies temporally between “high” β^E = 0.45 and “low” β^E = 0.1 states, represented by horizontal dotted lines. The vertical dotted lines represents the times when the true parameters were changed while generating data. The value of β used when generating the data is indicated by marker with up arrows indicating high and down arrows indicating low. We see that when the high value for β was used to generate data, the inferred value was higher and similarly the inferred value was low when the generating value was low. The inferred value for β^E is closer to the prior value of 0.2 in all scenarios at the end of the simulation when the signal from the cumulative infection counts is weaker.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010591.g003