Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data
Fig 5
In these three figures, the predicted values stem from DGP2’s filtering distribution. Further, in the LHS, the solid line indicates the median, and the darker and lighter ribbons represent the 50% and 95% CI, respectively. (A) Comparison between the predicted incidence (solid line and ribbons in the LHS; violin plots in the RHS) and weekly detected cases from Ireland’s first COVID-19 wave (rhombi in the LHS; horizontal dotted lines in the RHS). (B) Comparison between the predicted relative transmission rate (solid line and ribbons in the LHS; violin plots in the RHS) compared to Apple’s mobility indexes in Ireland (points in the LHS; horizontal dotted lines in the RHS). (C) Predicted effective reproduction number (solid line and ribbons in the LHS; violin plots in the RHS). Horizontal dashed lines denote the epidemics threshold.