Biased belief priors versus biased belief updating: Differential correlates of depression and anxiety
Fig 4
Testing for Depressive Realism.
We used the percentage of times that a participant was actually chosen as a potential partner in session 2 (‘true % selected’) to investigate if depression-related differences in starting beliefs (μ0) might actually reflect accurate perceptions of genuine differences in ‘profile popularity’, i.e., popularity as a potential internship partner. (a) Scores on the depression-specific latent factor were significantly negatively correlated with starting beliefs, r(64) = -0.33, p = 0.006. (b) Scores on the depression-specific factor showed a non-significant negative association with profile popularity (as indexed by true % selected, y-axis), r(64) = -0.17, p = 0.17. (c) Participants had poor insight into their profile popularity; correlation between true % selected and starting belief: r(64) = 0.06, p = 0.62. (d) Partialing out profile popularity (i.e., the true % selected for each participant) had little impact on the significant relationship between depression-specific factor scores and starting beliefs (partial r = -0.33, p = 0.007). A causal mediation analysis [32] confirmed that the relationship between scores on the depression-specific factor and negative starting beliefs was not mediated by profile popularity; Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) = 0.0002, p = 0.97.