Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S.
Fig 10
Spatiotemporal prediction of the potential ACP and HLB spread in the Central Valley.
We used Central Valley ACP trapping data to seed the simulations for ACP spread and locations of inconclusive HLB samples (Ct value less than 38 in qPCR diagnostic test) as the initial infected HLB sites. HLB spread can only happen between ACP infested sites. We calculated the ACP infestation and HLB infection probabilities by averaging over 1000 simulation runs for the prospective epidemics from January 2020 to December 2030. Basemap shapefile for cartographic boundaries reproduced from U.S. Census Bureau under open data use.