Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S.
Fig 4
Spatiotemporal retrospective and prospective prediction of HLB spread in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas.
Spatiotemporal retrospective analysis of the historical spread of training period (Dec 2011 –Aug 2016) and prospective prediction of testing period (Sep 2016 –Oct 2018) and the future where no data were available (Nov 2018 –Dec 2020). We calculated infection risk by averaging over 1000 simulation realizations of the model fitted to the training data. Basemap shapefile for cartographic boundaries reproduced from U.S. Census Bureau under open data use.