Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S.
Fig 2
Epidemiological models for ACP and HLB spread.
(A) The stochastic compartment model for HLB epidemiological dynamics in a Texas citrus grid cell and the observation model that matches infection status to survey diagnostic data. An infectious cell can infect other susceptible cells via the movement of local vectors, which were known to have established over the whole region before the emergence of HLB. ϕ, γP, πP denote the transition rates and detection probability and are described in Table 1 and derived in the Methods section. (B) The joint epidemiological model for ACP and HLB dynamics in California where ACP is invading and not yet endemic. The model extends the Texas model and introduces a new epidemic category ‘ACP + HLB infected’ that connects the dynamics of ACP infestation to HLB infection in a grid cell. The transition rates ϕ, ψ, φ, γV, γP and detection probabilities are described in Table 1 and derived in the Methods section.