Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling
Fig 3
Performance of nowcasts and forecasts in the Puerto Rico dengue fever and national US influenza-like illness data across all weeks 1.
1 Results for dengue fever are aggregated across each of 50 weeks in 18 seasons (1992–2009). Results for US national influenza are aggregated across 35 weeks in 7 seasons. The ensemble method corresponds to an equal-weight linear combination of all methods except validation data analysis. “Model” indicates that reporting factors were estimated via regression and allowed to vary by t and s. “Lag” indicates that reporting factors were estimated via Eq 6. “Local” indicates that reporting factors were estimated via Eq 8. Relative absolute biases are calculated relative to the largest value in each column.