Networks of necessity: Simulating COVID-19 mitigation strategies for disabled people and their caregivers
Fig 4
A comparison of a mean of 100 simulations of our stochastic model of COVID-19 spread with (left) cumulative documented case counts and (right) the 7-day mean of new daily documented cases.
For each day, we calculate the 7-day mean over a sliding window that includes the previous three days, the current day, and the next three days. We fit the parameters by minimizing the ℓ2-error of the model’s count of daily documented cases over the first 90 days. We show the mean of our model in blue and the Ottawa case data in red. The gray window indicates the middle 95% of these 100 simulations. On day 44 (i.e., 24 March 2020), all subpopulations limit contacts and the (D+C+E) mask-wearing scenario begins. The graphs terminate on day 148, when Ottawa had its first reopening.