Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study
Fig 4
Impact of different predictor variables on the critical time point.
For (A), the original values of the critical time point obtained from the simulations were summarized. Each box was drawn from the first quartile (Q1) to the third quartile (Q3) of the data, with the horizontal line in the middle showing the median. The upper whisker boundary was the largest observation that was within Q3 + 1.5 · (Q3—Q1), and the lower whisker boundary was the smallest observation above Q1–1.5 · (Q3—Q1). Data points beyond the whisker boundaries were omitted from the graph for clarity. For (B)—(F), we used SHAP values to quantify the change in the predicted critical time point due to the value of each predictor variable, where each point represents a single simulation run and each curve was obtained by fitting a smoothing spline to the set of data points corresponding to a given overall level of vector control intensity. We excluded simulations where the overall level of vector control intensity was 0.8 or higher, due to the high probability that vector control remained effective throughout the 30-year intervention period.