Bayesian data assimilation for estimating instantaneous reproduction numbers during epidemics: Applications to COVID-19
Fig 6
Illustration of the hierarchical transition process and observation process.
The most recent infection that can be observed by Ct is at the time t* = t−d where d is a constant determined by the distribution of observation delay. Suppose Tφ is the length of the vector such that Ct is only relevant to Jt* and jt* only depends on Jt*−1 via the renewal process. Therefore, Tφ≥max(Tw, TH−d+1). The case that Tφ = TH−d+1 is depicted in this figure.