Microsimulation based quantitative analysis of COVID-19 management strategies
Fig 1
PanSim maps simulated population movements and projected infections onto specific locations in the virtual city emulating Szeged.
(A) Institutions and households are localised in a virtual city. Colour codes represent different types of locations, and node sizes increase linearly with the number of infected people (see an animated version of this map at https://youtu.be/OCfbHjLeCbY). (B) Distribution of infection events at various types of locations when the virus is unmitigated or when restrictions from the reference scenario are applied. (Note the logarithmic scale, error bars show the uncertainty of 20 simulations.) (C) Projected sensitivity of the pandemic with various intervention types and levels. Colour code shows the severity function of the pandemics for the labelled changes. (Details on the analysed scenarios can be found in Table F in S1 Text. (D) Comparing actual hospitalisation data [36] to the fitted and the reference scenario simulations. (Mean and std. of 30 simulations are shown).