Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant
Fig 4
The three likeliest paths of discernible symptom order in Japan before and after the D614G mutation became prominent.
A) The first (gold), second (silver), and third (bronze) likeliest paths of the order of discernible symptoms of COVID-19 patients before the D614G mutation became prominent. In the case where the gold and silver lines converge, they both follow the same path. B) The first, second, and third likeliest paths of the order of discernible symptoms of COVID-19 patients in Japan after the D614G mutation became prominent. C) Table of raw frequency data specifying the number and the percentage of patients that experienced fever and cough in the datasets of Japan before and after the D614G mutation became prominent. (The study used for symptom frequencies of COVID-19 patients after the outbreak of the D614G mutation reported symptoms of 2636 patients, except for cough, where only 2634 of the patients were recorded.) D) Abridged Hasse Diagram depicting the transition probabilities from no symptom to fever or cough before the D614G mutation became prominent. The double arrow signifies that the transition probability of the most likely first symptom is more than double the transition probability second most likely first symptom. The error of the transition probabilities is 0.002. E) Abridged Hasse Diagram depicting the transition probabilities from no symptom to fever or cough after the D614G mutation became prominent. The error of the transition probabilities is 0.036. F) A bar graph displaying the relative change, compared to the previous year, of search popularity of the terms, “cough,” “fever,” and “diarrhea,” in the months, January, February, March, and April 2020 calculated from Google Trends.