Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
Fig 2
Efficacy of combined interventions including preventative NPIs (e.g., masking, distancing, lockdowns) and testing and isolation.
Infections in the 30 days after intervention change (represented as a median of 5000 stochastic simulations) are shown across non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) intensities both when test delays are fixed (A) and test administration is fixed (B) for several sample values. In both, isoclines are shown for 250, 500, and 1000 infections, representing potential threshold levels of median infections that a local system can tolerate. Similarly, the test delay and administration required to achieve a given NPI intensity (C) are shown for four potential NPI intensities (line color) across two possible effective test sensitivities (line type; solid = 100%, dashed = 90%), all assuming 500-infection threshold levels (contours for 250- and 1000-infection thresholds shown in S2 Fig). Grey arrows represent sample policy movements between interventions that maintain public health outcomes, where moves can be made by increasing testing administration (vertical arrows), decreasing test delays (horizontal arrows), or a combination (diagonal arrows). Moves can maintain NPI intensity with a less sensitive test (thick arrows), decrease NPI intensity with the same test (medium arrows), and decrease NPI intensity with a less sensitive test (light arrows). See S3 Fig for a version of this figure showing results when individuals who report for testing are assumed to wait for a test result to isolate.