A confirmation bias in perceptual decision-making due to hierarchical approximate inference
Fig 3
Changes in bias predicted by approximate hierarchical inference models.
a) Performance of an ideal observer reporting C given ten frames of evidence. White line shows threshold performance, defined as 70% correct. The ideal observer’s temporal weights are always flat (not shown). b) Performance of our sampling-based approximate inference model with no leak (Methods). Colored dots correspond to lines in the next panel. c) Temporal weights in the model transition from flat to a strong primacy effect, all at threshold performance, as the stimulus transitions from the HSLC to the LSHC conditions. d) Visualization of how temporal biases change across the entire task space. Red corresponds to primacy, and blue to recency. White contour as in (b). Black lines are iso-contours for slopes corresponding to highlighted points in (b). e-g) Same as (b-d) but with leaky integration, which lessens primacy effects and produces recency effects when category information is low.