Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence
Fig 2
A, the 2-level HGF with parallel processing streams for social and non-social stimuli. The choice data is fed into the model, which is inverted to obtain parameter estimations for an individual. The perceptual model includes the both the social and non-social information, which is then used to compute the combined belief, b. This combined belief is the input to the response model. More details are given in the methods. B, increasing ωs causes the prediction about the accuracy of the bet () to become closer to an extreme (1 or 0). This tilts the combined belief towards this prediction. C, increasing ωns causes the recency bias to have less of an effect on the prediction about the image categorization (
) while perceived tendency (second level belief) dominates the prediction. The effect is stronger when the recent image is very ambiguous.