Bayesian calibration, process modeling and uncertainty quantification in biotechnology
Fig 12
Parameter correlations, data and posterior distributions of growth curves.
Each kernel density estimate (KDE) in the top half shows a 2-dimensional cross section of the full posterior, visualizing correlations between some of the model parameters. For example, the topmost KDE shows that the posterior samples of Foffset,D04 are correlated with X0,μ. Axis labels correspond to the lower and upper bound of 90% HDIs. The large pair plot shows just the marginals that are relevant for the replicates D04 and D06, whereas the small pair plot shows the dimensions for all parameters (high resolution in S2 Fig). In the bottom half of the figure, the kinetics of replicates D04 and D06 are drawn. The red (substrate) and green (biomass) densities correspond to the distribution of predictions obtained from posterior samples, as described in Section 3.2.7. The red violins visualize the posterior inferred from single glucose measurement responses without the use of the process model. Likewise, the green vertical bars on the biomass concentrations show the 90% HDI.