Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread
Fig 7
The change in spatial predictability for 6 pathogens plotted over time for outbreaks introduced to districts with a range of population densities.
The results from simulations of outbreaks for 7 example pathogens (influenza, SARS-CoV-2, measles, Ebola, pertussis, P. falciparum malaria, and Tuberculosis). For each pathogen, outbreaks were introduced into each of the 105 districts in Namibia and the change in spatial predictability for successive generations was calculated. The heatmaps and contour lines show values of spatial predictability (ϕ) as they change over successive generations (x-axis) and the population density of the introduction district (y-axis). The number of days since the introduction is indicated on the top-axis. Annotations in the lower right indicate the pathogen, basic reproduction number (R0), generation time in days (γ), and proportion of the population that is susceptible (s) used in spatial simulations. Transmission parameters used in simulations were drawn from the literature and shown in S1 Table.