Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread
Fig 6
Predictability of spatial spread for a range of R0 and generation time values and the change in spatial predictability over time for 7 pathogens.
A) A heatmap with contour lines showing the values of initial spatial predictability (ϕ) calculated for hypothetical combinations of R0 and generation time (days). Example pathogens are indicated by colored circles: influenza, SARS-CoV-2, measles, Ebola, pertussis, P. falciparum malaria, tuberculosis. The level of spatial predictability is shown in the color bar to the right with schematic representations for scenarios where patterns of spatial spread are perfectly predictable (ϕ = 1) or completely unpredictable (ϕ = 0). B) The change in these initial values of spatial predictability over successive generations for each of the 7 example pathogens. Colored lines represent the mean value of spatial predictability calculated over 1000 replicates of the stochastic TSIR model (see Methods). In both analyses, the capital district of Namibia, Windhoek East, was used as the introduction district.