MGDrivE 2: A simulation framework for gene drive systems incorporating seasonality and epidemiological dynamics
Fig 2
MGDrivE 2 includes two basic models for reciprocal pathogen transmission between mosquitoes and humans—one for malaria (A), and one for arboviruses (B). In both cases, female mosquitoes emerge from pupae at a rate equal to dP/2 as susceptible adults (SV), become exposed/latently infected (EV,1) at a rate equal to the force of infection in mosquitoes, λV, and progress to infectiousness (IV) through the extrinsic incubation period (EIP = 1/γV), which is divided into n bins to give an Erlang-distributed dwell time. The mortality rate, μF, is the same for female mosquitoes in each of these states. For malaria (A), susceptible humans (SH) become infected/infectious (IH) at a rate equal to the force of infection in humans, λH, and recover at rate r, becoming susceptible again. For arboviruses (B), susceptible humans (SH) become exposed/latently infected (EH) at a rate equal to λH, progress to infectiousness (IH) at rate equal to γH, and recover (RH) at rate, r. Infection dynamics couple the mosquito and human systems via the force of infection terms; λV is a function of IH, and λH is a function of IV, shown via red edges.