Modeling historic incidence trends implies early field cancerization in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
Fig 1
Multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model for ESCC.
Model parameters are: ν the rate of an ESCC predisposing field-defect, μ1 the mutation rate (per field) for the initiation of premalignant (dysplastic) clones, α the cell division rate, β the cell death rate, and μ2 the rate of malignant transformations. A lag-time of 5 years is assumed for a viable malignant cell to progress to clinical cancer.