Individual differences in the perception of probability
Fig 9
Comparisons between alternative models of probability encoding and reporting.
(A) The difference in BIC values across the three different types of models, relative to the distorted Bayesian benchmark. The smallest differences are for subject 6, for whom the QB BIC is 1 point higher, the delta rule BIC is 11 points higher, and the PTN BIC is 18 points lower than the benchmark. Estimation results are based on the data conditional on adjustment for all models. The BIC levels vary across subjects depending on how frequently each subject adjusted their forecast. (B) The difference in the standard deviation of the noise associated with each model, relative to the distorted Bayesian benchmark.