Accuracy in the prediction of disease epidemics when ensembling simple but highly correlated models
Fig 3
Schematic of wheat growth phases and key stages in the life cycle of Fusarium graminearum which causes Fusarium head blight.
Wheat growth and development as well as pathogen survival, reproduction, dispersal, and infection are all affected by weather. Spores must land on the wheat spike (head) sometime between flowering and early grain fill, which is the period of greatest host susceptibility (but is also of limited duration) for infection. Successful infection and colonization of the spike is associated with mycotoxin accumulation in the grain.