Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 with imperfect serological tests: Exploiting cutoff-free approaches
Fig 6
Estimates of the cumulative incidence in a population where individuals have been uninfected, as well as symptomatically and severely infected.
The x-axes represent the AUC-ROC value between the asymptomatic and severe case distribution. The AUC-ROC value between the control and the severe case distributions is 1. Each violin represents the result of 50 simulated serosurveys with 10, 000 individuals per serosurvey. The true total cumulative incidence of severe and asymptomatic infections is 10%, of which 20% are asymptomatic. (A) Cyan violins show estimates of the total cumulative incidence based on an inferred case distribution containing only severe case sera, whereas purple violins show estimates where the case distribution is containing both asymptomatic and severe case sera. (B) The estimated cumulative incidence of the mild (light purple) and the severe (dark purple) cases, where the case sera distribution is only based on severe cases, but the likelihood equation also estimates the shape of the asympotomatic cases and their relative prevalence.