Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 with imperfect serological tests: Exploiting cutoff-free approaches
Fig 3
Statistical power of the mixture model.
In all simulations, the number of control and case data is fixed to 5, 000 each and the true cumulative incidence level is 8%. (A) Statistical power versus the number of individuals in the serosurvey for varying levels of test accuracy (AUC-ROC). The power is calculated as the fraction of simulated serosurveys that resulted in a cumulative incidence estimate that is within 25% of the true cumulative incidence and for which the true cumulative incidence level lies within 2 standard deviations of the estimated value. Each point in the graph represents the result of 3, 000 in silico serosurveys. (B) The minimal number of virtual individuals necessary to obtain a statistical power of 0.9 over a range of AUC-ROC values.