Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 with imperfect serological tests: Exploiting cutoff-free approaches
Fig 2
Estimated fold increases in cumulative incidence for the cutoff-based methods and the mixture model.
In the simulated serosurveys, we assumed the cumulative incidence to increase from 1.5% to 15%, resulting in a true fold increase of 10 (dashed line). The violins show the distribution of 50 in silico serosurveys for both cumulative incidence levels conducted with cohorts of 10, 000 individuals and a test with an AUC-ROC value of 0.975. The dots indicate the median value.