Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 with a state-space method
Fig 7
The difference in the reproduction number at the initial phase.
(A) The reproduction numbers estimated with the proposed state-space method for 10 days until the day before the lockdown measures of each country. Days are counted from 12 days before the confinement measures. (B) Initial variation in the numbers of daily new cases; ni divided by n6. The period is shifted by 5 days, by taking account of the typical transmission delay.