Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony
Fig 4
Effect of temperature on malaria transmission parameters.
Panel A shows the model impact of temperature on the EIP quantiles (as indicated in legend); panel B shows its impact on the human-to-mosquito transmission probability. In both panels, the lines show impact as estimated by the all temperature mSOS model with 95% posterior intervals indicated by shading; the discrete round points show the independent estimates from the single temperature mSOS model at each temperature, 95% posterior credible intervals are shown by the vertical lines. The discrete triangle points show the logistic growth model parameter estimates at each temperature. The number of iterations used to calculate the EIP plot were thinned to every 5th iteration for efficiency.