Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony
Fig 3
Model fits to sporozoite prevalence data across all temperatures.
These fits were generated by fitting a single model to all temperatures simultaneously (“all temperature” model), with the functional form of temperature as described in Eqs (2.11) and (2.12). Black points: parasite prevalence of the laboratory mosquito data (95% confidence intervals are given by the vertical black lines). The grey shaded area represents the 95% quantiles of the posterior predictive means; the black lines represent the median posterior predictive means.