Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony
Fig 2
Single temperature 27°C model fit to the oocyst and sporozoite data.
The panels show our model fit to the 27°C dataset: panel A to the oocyst prevalence, panel B to the oocyst intensity data and panel C to the sporozoite prevalence. (A & C) points show parasite prevalence of the laboratory mosquito data (95% confidence intervals are given by the point range). The grey shaded area represents the 95% credible interval of the model posterior predictive means, the median posterior predictive mean is shown by the black line. (B) The points show the mean parasite load among all blood fed mosquitoes (intensity); the point range indicates the 2.5%–97.5% quantiles of the raw data. The shaded area represents the 2.5%–97.5% quantiles of the negative binomial distribution; where the location and overdispersion parameters are set to their posterior means.