Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models
Fig 8
Comparison of differential equation and agent-based model with correlated transitions.
Here the population size is 10000 individuals with 100 initially infected. The testing rate is θ = 7−1days−1, the base testing rate is θ0 = 2θ, and tracing rate and success probability are χ = 0.5, η = 0.5. The plots show the time-series for each compartment. This choice of parameter values is such that, because the transitions are strongly correlated, individuals are only tested at the end of their infectious period and are effectively never isolated. The top row are the compartments representing unconfined individuals, those in SU, EU, IU and RU. The bottom row are those representing isolated—diagnosed or distanced—individuals, SD, ED, ID, RD. The heavy orange curves are the output of the ODE-based simulation. The violet curves are the average output of the agent-based simulation with correlated transitions, with envelopes for one and two standard deviations.