Tracking and predicting U.S. influenza activity with a real-time surveillance network
Fig 5
ITS data can be used to improve the forecasting accuracy of current influenza trends.
Total seasonal log-score gain for predictions using real-time estimates using the ITS data compared to CDC data with a 1 week lag for different forecasting horizons for the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 season for one region. The model shows the most improvement (i.e., gain in log-score) compared to the CDC data with a 1 week lag when predicting 1 week into the future, but even in predictions with larger horizons, predictions using ITS data were better than predictions using CDC data with a 1 week lag. Boxplots summarizes results from the 11 different geographical areas. Figure B in S1 Text shows details for all areas.