Tracking and predicting U.S. influenza activity with a real-time surveillance network
Fig 4
Comparing ITS data based forecast to other real-time data sources.
Each panel compares the log-score difference of ITS forecasts to forecasts based on another data source. Red color: > 0.1 average log-score improvement associated with ITS; Orange: (0, 0.1]; Grey: [−0.1, 0); Black: < −0.1 worse. Values of zero did not occur and white color stands for Reg 2 and 10 in 2016 when no forecasts where calculated. First row: we see clear improvement of ITS compared with ILI as in the Fig 5. Second row: ITS compared with nowcasting source Wikipedia. Third row: ITS compared with ILINearby. Third row: Comparing an ensemble of ITS + ILINearby with Nearby. These comparisons demonstrate that ITS is a valuable addition to presently available nowcasting data sources.