Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation
Fig 6
Real-time APE sensitivity to rapid epidemic control.
We simulate 103 independent epi-curves under renewal models with (A) one effective and (B) two partially effective interventions. Top graphs give the true (green) and predicted (blue) incidence ranges, the middle ones provide estimates of Rs under the final and the bottom graphs illustrate how successive
choices from APE can reliably and rapidly detect the impact of real-time control actions.